Commercial Real Estate Syndication Projected Returns

One of the most common questions that I get asked about real estate syndications is, “If I were to invest $50,000 with you today, what kinds of returns should I expect?”

I get it. You want to know how real estate syndications can make your money work for you, and how passive real estate investing stacks up to the returns you’re getting through other types of investment vehicles.

In order to help answer that question, you should first know that we will be talking about projected returns. That is, these returns are projections, based on our analyses and best guesses, but they aren’t guaranteed, and there’s always risk associated with any investment. The examples herein are only meant to provide some ballpark ideas to get you started.

In this article, let’s explore the 3 main criteria you should look into when evaluating projected returns on a potential real estate syndication deal:

  1. Projected hold time
  2. Projected cash-on-cash returns
  3. Projected profits at the sale

 

Projected Hold Time: ~5 Years

Projected hold time, perhaps the easiest concept, is the number of years we would hold the asset before selling it. What this means for you is that this is the amount of time that your capital would be invested in the deal.

A hold time of around five years is beneficial for a few reasons:

1. Plenty can change in just five years. You could start and complete a college degree, move, get married, or …you get the point. You need enough time to earn healthy returns, but not so much that your kids graduate before the sale.

2. Considering market cycles, five years is a modest stint in which to invest, make improvements, allow appreciation, and exit before it’s time to remodel again.

3. A five-year projected hold provides a buffer between the estimated sale and the typical seven- to ten-year commercial loan term. If the market softens at the 5-year mark, we can opt to hold the asset for a longer period of time, allowing the market to rebound.

Projected Cash-on-Cash Returns: 7-8% Per Year

Next, consider cash-on-cash returns, otherwise known as cash flow or passive income. Cash-on-cash returns are what remain after vacancy costs, mortgage, and expenses. It’s the pot of money that gets distributed to investors. 

If you invested $100,000, and earned eight percent per year, the projected cash flow would be about $8,000 per year or about $667 per month. That’s $40,000 over the five-year hold.

Just for kicks, notice the same value invested in a “high” interest savings account (earning 1%).  That would return $1,000 a year and a measly $5,000 over a 5 year period.  

That’s a difference of $35,000 over the span of 5 years!

Projected Profit Upon Sale: ~40-60%

Perhaps the largest puzzle piece is the projected profit upon sale. Typically, we aim for about 60% in profit at the sale in year 5.

In five years’ time, the units have been updated, tenants are strong, and rent accurately reflects market rates. Since commercial property values are based on the amount of income generated, these improvements, along with market appreciation, typically lead to a substantial increase in the overall value of the asset, thus leading to sizable profits upon the sale.

 

Summing It All Up

Simple enough, right? Typically, in the deals we do, we are looking for the following:

  • 5-year hold
  • 7-8% annual cash-on-cash returns
  • 40-60% profits upon sale 

Sticking with the previous example, you’d invest $100,000, hold for 5 years, collect $8,000 per year in cash flow distributions paid out monthly (a total of $40,000 over 5 years), and earn $60,000 in profit at the sale. 

This results in $200,000 at the end of 5 years – $100,000 of your initial investment, and $100,000 in total returns.

Again, these results are not guaranteed, and each real estate syndication deal is different, but this should give you a rough idea of what to expect.

Yomesh is the co-founder and managing partner of Exponential Equity. Yomesh is a seasoned entrepreneur with a passion for commercial real estate. Yomesh acquired his first real estate property in 2007 with the sole purpose of creating passive income. Over last 13 years, Yomesh has successfully owned and managed a robust portfolio of properties across Charlotte area. Through Exponential Equity, Yomesh’s goal is to help individuals like him to build wealth faster through passively investing in commercial real estate. In addition to being real estate investor, Yomesh is an Information Technology Executive at a leading chemical company. Over the career span of two decades, Yomesh has led several small and large technology initiatives across various Fortune 500 firms that led to improved operational efficiency and faster decision making for company leadership. Yomesh is also a triathlete with his most notable achievement completing the 2019 Ironman 70.3 at Wilmington, North Carolina. Yomesh lives with his wife and two daughters in Charlotte, North Carolina and loves traveling, music and extra spicy Indian food.

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